Moving ahead towards an energy policy?
The Department of Transportation has issued new fuel economy standards for cars and light trucks for the 2011 model year. They will raise the industry-wide combined average to 27.3 miles per gallon — a 2.0 mpg increase over the 2010 model year average– as estimated by the National Highway Traffic Safety Administration (NHTSA). It will save about 887 million gallons of fuel and reduce carbon dioxide emissions by 8.3 million metric tons, according to DOT.
“These standards are important steps in the nation’s quest to achieve energy independence and bring more fuel efficient vehicles to American families,” said U.S. Secretary of Transportation Ray LaHood.
The 2011 standard will use an attribute-based system, which sets fuel economy standards for individual vehicle models based on size, unlike the old CAFE standard that used broad averages for cars and light trucks. The standards adopted are not as aggressive as originally proposed after an analysis showed that the lead times were too short to adopt fuel economy improvement technologies that were also deemed too expensive in the current environment.
Secretary LaHood noted today that work on the multi-year fuel economy plan for model years after 2011 is already well underway. These plans are crucial for automakers who must decide on vehicle size and performance three or more years before they go on sale.
The Energy Independence and Security Act (EISA) says that model year 2011-2020 CAFE standards must be set sufficiently high to ensure that the industry-wide average of all new passenger cars and light trucks, combined, is not less than 35 miles per gallon by model year 2020. This is a minimum requirement. NHTSA must set standards at the maximum feasible level in each model year.
The DOT release was silent on the proposed initiative in California to regulate greenhouse gases. The proposal by the California Air Resources Board (CARB), 13 states and the District of Columbia to establish their own fuel economy and greenhouse gas programs continues to be controversial for its fragmenting of federal fuel economy regulations. All told, these states comprise more than 40% of the vehicles sold in the U.S.
That 2005 CARB proposal was ultimately rejected by the Bush Administration last year. It is currently under review by the EPA at the request of the Obama Administration, which was elected in part because of the support of environmental pressure groups. EPA must grant a waiver for the CARB proposal to proceed. Virtually all major auto automakers oppose the regulation and have previously undertaken legal actions to prevent it, saying federal law pre-empts it. Lawmakers are trying to get promises from Chrysler and General Motors to drop opposition to the CARB proposal as part of the loan guarantees that are pending.
The review of future fuel economy standards beyond 2011 will include the legality of the CARB proposal, as well as an evaluation of fuel saving technologies, market conditions and future product plans from the manufacturers, according to the published 2011 rule. The effort will be coordinated with interested stakeholders and other federal agencies, including the Environmental Protection Agency.
On January 26, 2009, President Barack Obama directed the Department of Transportation to review relevant legal, technological, and scientific considerations associated with establishing more stringent fuel economy standards, and to finalize the 2011 model year standard by the end of March.
Has media asked or reported basis of NHTSA’s claim of fuel and CO2 savings?
Actual outcome will depend on what mix of new cars the public buys and how far they drive them…unknowable…compared to what it would be if public continues to drive their present cars for the same mileage as now, which won’t happen.
Beyond hypothetical to dubious.
I’ve been slowly working my way through the almost 900 pages of the final rule and have been impressed with the level of thought and science that were brought to its making. It contains far higher detail and analysis of assumptions than many of the auto company plans I’ve seen over the years. And it does take into account mix. And, yes, it is based on assumptions that look reasonable to me.
You are correct that miles driven can change the estimates. Still, this is progress after decades of failure. And it is only one piece of an emerging energy policy from the first administration since Carter’s to take seriously the threat to national security that our unhealthy appetite for imported oil creates.
The Energy Independence and Security Act (EISA) amended the Energy Policy and Conservation Act (EPCA) by mandating that the model year (MY) 2011-2020 CAFE standards be set sufficiently high to ensure that the industry-wide average of all new passenger cars and light trucks, combined, is not less than 35 miles per gallon by 2020. This is a minimum requirement, since NHTSA must set standards at the maximum feasible level in each model year. NHTSA will determine whether that additional requirement calls for establishing standards that reach the 35 mpg goal earlier than 2020.
The combined industry-wide average fuel economy (in mpg) levels for both cars and light trucks, if each manufacturer just met its obligations under the final “optimized” standards for MY 2011, would be 27.3 mpg, or 325.5 grams CO2 per mile. This represents an increase in fuel economy of about 7.9% over the previous model year’s standards.
NHTSA estimates that the final standard for MY 2011 passenger cars would save approximately 0.5 billion gallons of fuel and prevent 4.3 million metric tons of tailpipe CO2 emissions over the lifetime of the passenger cars sold during that model year. NHTSA also estimates that the value of the total benefits of the final standard for MY 2011 passenger cars would be $1.03 billion over the lifetime of the vehicles manufactured in that model year.
NHTSA further estimates that the final standard for light trucks would save approximately 0.42 billion gallons of fuel and prevent 4.03 million metric tons of tailpipe CO2 emissions over the lifetime of the light trucks sold during MY 2011.
For light trucks, NHTSA estimates that the value of the total benefits of the final MY 2011 standard would be $0.92 billion over the lifetime of the light trucks sold in that year.
Below is a statement by Eli Hopson, Washington representative for the Union of Concerned scientists’ Clean Vehicles Program:
“The fuel economy average should have been higher, but the Obama administration had its hands tied. The 2011 rule is based on fundamentally flawed methodology and data held over from the Bush administration, so it’s no surprise that it isn’t that much of a boost.
“NHTSA had to meet a tight deadline and was stuck using methodology and data that overestimate the cost and underestimate the benefits of higher fuel economy for consumers, the environment and national security.
“The Obama administration did damage control on the flawed approach by limiting its reach to just one model year.
“We need to see a significant boost in fuel economy requirements when the Obama administration addresses subsequent model years. President Obama and his administration understand the importance of cutting oil consumption, reducing global warming pollution, strengthening the auto industry, and saving consumers money. They need to ensure that NHTSA is open about how it calculates fuel economy levels. The agency should rely on independent analysis instead of trusting the auto industry’s inflated technology cost estimates. Additionally, the agency should work with the Environmental Protection Agency, which is doing a real-world analysis to determine how much fuel-efficient technology actually costs as well as the benefits of putting better technology in cars and trucks.”
The Union of Concerned Scientists is a non-profit organization working for a healthy environment and a safer world. Founded in 1969, UCS is headquartered in Cambridge, Massachusetts, and also has offices in Berkeley, Chicago and Washington, D.C.
The following is a statement by John McEleney, chairman of the National Automobile Dealers Association, regarding the Model Year 2011 fuel economy standard:
“By setting a fuel economy standard higher than what California regulators have proposed, the Obama administration today removed the last argument for state-by-state regulation of fuel economy. The structure of California’s program — with its exemptions for major automakers, its ‘patchwork’ design and its loopholes — is unworkable as a national policy.
“Only a single, national fuel economy standard gives the auto industry the regulatory certainty necessary to produce and market the fuel efficient cars of tomorrow. In contrast, California’s patchwork fuel economy program would exacerbate the auto sector’s severe economic turmoil.
“Now that the new Corporate Average Fuel Economy (CAFE) law, passed by Congress in Dec. 2007, is at last being implemented, America’s auto dealers call on all stakeholders, including the Obama administration and California regulators, to embrace a single, national fuel economy standard.”
CAFE is actually higher than CARB’s standard.
The CAFE standard set by the Obama administration for model year 2011 is 27.3 mpg for the light duty fleet, which includes passenger cars and light trucks. Source: Associated Press, March 27, 2009
The California Air Resources Board (CARB) standard for model year 2011 is 26.7 mpg for the light duty fleet, which includes passenger cars and light trucks. Source: CARB, “Comparison of Greenhouse Gas Reductions for the United States and Canada Under U.S. CAFE Standards and California, An Enhanced Technical Assessment,” Feb. 25, 2008, page 10.