The launch of the Buick LaCrosse is critical to Buick's and GM's future, but shouldn't the marque also be getting some small cars, as well?
This is what’s known as a speculative story, an effort by a long-time automotive journalist to polish the dust off the crystal ball and look into the future.
Everyone knows that crystal balls are notoriously fickle — ask any gambler — and I may look like a fool tomorrow or the next day as the New General Motors unreels various announcements, but I have been thinking about this for a couple of months, ever since GM announced it was canning Pontiac.
Of Pontiac’s 2,600 franchises in the U.S., fewer than 40 are single-point dealers handling only Pontiac. Most of the rest are dualed with other GM brands, mostly in Pontiac-Buick-GMC combinations. Pontiac has postured itself as a “sports car” brand in contrast to the boulevard Buicks and something-for-everyone Chevrolets. In the first six months of 2009, Pontiac retailed 88,794 vehicles while Buick sold 47,223. But in the first quarter, Pontiac’s sales were twice Buick’s, before the announcement of Pontiac’s imminent demise was announced — which no doubt scared some customers away, not to mention demoralizing dealers and sales forces.
It’s true that Buick is considered by GM to be a “global” brand, especially with booming sales in China, whereas Pontiac has been relegated for some years to North America (Mexico, U.S. and Canada). This is no doubt one of the reason that if one had to go, and despite substantial investments by GM in new Pontiac models like the G3 and G8, the Pontiac brand got tossed in the trash.
But the point of this speculative story is, “Whither Buick?”
I don’t think many Buick-GMC dealerships can survive with just the present line-up of Enclave crossover, two Buick cars — LaCrosse and Lucerne — and GMC trucks and SUVs. For one thing, Buick has no “small car,” no entry-level or near-entry-level models, like the G3 or G5, to capture and hold first-time car buyers. And, unfortunately, to keep some loyal-to-brand-and-dealership, hardcore Pontiac owners happy, there also is no Buick “sports car” like the Solstice roadster or a Buick rear-wheel-drive V-8 performance sedan like the Australian-made G8.
Likewise, neither Buick nor GMC have a small station wagon, or crossover, if you prefer, a la the Pontiac/Toyota Vibe or the Chevrolet HHR. I thought GM might fix that easily by “Buickizing” the well-regarded Pontiac Vibe. But last week, it announced it would walk out of its 20-odd-year contract with Toyota – operating a San Francisco-area plant, known as NUMMI — where Vibe is built alongside the Toyota Matrix. (In this case Toyota also is suffering from excess capacity in the U.S., so the joint operation of the Fremont assembly plant will probably cease entirely.)
Some observers feel that because of Pontiac franchise agreements, Buick could never succeed in “badge engineering” unique Pontiac products in the marketplace — putting Buick grilles and logos on them. At this point, I don’t think anyone yet knows what can or cannot be done under bankruptcy conditions, what claims the remaining 40 Pontiac-only dealers might make, or how much it would cost for GM to simply buy them off.
But the fact remains, Buick will have to expand its product line-up in order to keep its remaining Buick-GMC dual dealerships in business. That’s a dramatic reversal from the stated corporate position of barely a year ago, which was to give Buick’s U.S. franchise no more than three or four different models. So, I predict there will be smaller Buicks in the future, probably derived from Chevrolet models, such as Aveo and Cobalt.
Or who knows what wunderkind Bob Lutz may yet have up his sleeve as the reconstituted marketing czar of GM?