September new-vehicle retail sales are expected to come in at a mere 590,000 units, which represents a seasonally adjusted annualized rate (SAAR) of just 7.5 million units, according to J.D. Power and Associates, which gathers real-time transaction data from more than 8,900 dealers across the United States.
“Low inventories and reduced incentives, combined with the effects of CARS pull-ahead sales, spell tough conditions for September,” said Gary Dilts, senior vice president of global automotive operations Power.
“September’s retail SAAR is projected to be the lowest selling rate in 2009. However, improving consumer confidence and credit conditions in the months ahead are likely to help to rebuild the retail industry,” he said.
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U.S. New Vehicle Sales and SAAR – September 2009 |
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|
September 2009 (1) |
August 2009 |
September 2008 |
September 2008 % |
|
New Vehicle Retail Sales |
590,000 | 1,142,876 | 740,883 |
-24% |
|
Total Vehicles |
710,000 | 1,259,708 | 962,097 |
-29% |
|
Retail SAAR |
7.5 m | 11.8 m | 8.8 m | |
|
Total SAAR |
9.2 m | 13.8 m | 12.5 m | |
| J.D. Power and Associates (1) Figures cited for September 2009 are forecasted numbers based on the first 16 selling days of the month. (2) The percentage change is adjusted based on the number of selling days – 25 days vs. 24 days one year ago. | ||||
It is now clear that 2009 will be a write off for what remains a financially challenged industry. Of particular concern for U.S. taxpayers is the health of the newly reorganized Chrysler Group and General Motors Company.
Both companies were driven into bankruptcy earlier this year because of sales that were far above current levels. Since neither company is reporting financial results, it is impossible to know if the roughly $60 billion invested by taxpayers is a reasonable investment or just delayed their demise.
Power says that fleet volume remains low. September fleet sales are expected to decline by nearly 50%, compared with one year ago. Ford Motor Company however was predicting a big increase in its September fleet sales when it reported sales last month, but actual results won’t be available until next week.
September total light-vehicle sales are projected to come in at 710,000 units, down 29% from September 2008. The September SAAR for total light-vehicle sales is projected to decline to 9.2 million units, compared with 13.8 million units in August.
The retail segment mix has returned to pre-CARS program levels, with the share of compact cars decreasing to 19% in September from 28%t in August. Premium vehicles and large pickups have also returned to market share levels consistent with the 2009 average prior to the CARS program.
“After the anomaly created by the CARS program, September’s balanced segment mix indicates a return to more natural consumer behavior,” said Jeff Schuster, executive director of global forecasting at J.D. Power and Associates. “This stability is fundamental to a market recovery and a return to a healthy industry. However, consumers are hesitant and the automotive industry remains fragile, and the risk of a secondary decline remains.”
Power is maintaining its forecast for 2009 at 10.3 million units for total sales, with retail sales projected to come in at 8.6 million units. The 2010 forecast remains at 11.5 million units for total sales and 9.5 million units for retail sales.