Retail sales of new vehicles this December are expected to increase substantially compared with one year ago at 839,600 units, which represents a seasonally adjusted annualized rate (SAAR) of 9.1 million units.
December’s fleet sales are projected to be down 10% from one year ago, although they are climbing compared to earlier this year. As a result, total sales for December are projected to come in at 1,029,600 units, up 7% from December 2008.
“The market is continuing to improve, with the relative strength of December sales supporting a year-end rally,” said Gary Dilts, at J.D. Power and Associates, which gathers real-time transaction data from more than 8,900 franchisees across the United States.
“The December selling rate is tracking at 11.2 million units, up nearly 1 million units from one year ago, which sets up 2010 for further recovery,” claims Dilts. (chart follows)
U.S. Sales and SAAR – December 2009 | |||
December 2009 1 | November 2009 | December 2008 | |
New-vehicle retail | 839,600 (+12% Dec. 2008) | 585,135 | 697,633 |
Total vehicle sales | 1,029,600 (+7% Dec. 2008) | 745,284 | 892,482 |
Retail SAAR | 9.1 million | 8.7 million | 8.2 million |
Total SAAR | 11.2 million | 10.9 million | 10.3 million |
1 Figures cited for December 2009 are forecasted numbers based on the first 17 selling days of the month. |
Power says that since worst economic environment since the Great Depression, the automotive market has recovered from its low point in March 2009, and has been outperforming “expectations” since October.
Given the more robust pace and a strong December close, 2009 is projected to come in higher than previously expected, with total sales at 10.4 million units and retail sales at 8.7 million units.
“While the industry hasn’t yet received a clean bill of health, fixed costs have been trimmed at all levels, allowing for profitability—even at a reduced selling rate,” said Jeff Schuster, at Power. “The industry has an opportunity in 2010 to build on a series of small victories, such as improved pricing and appropriate inventory levels, to drive a stronger recovery.”
J.D. Power and Associates is maintaining its 2010 forecast at 11.5 million units for total sales and 9.5 million units for retail sales.