April new-vehicle retail sales are expected to come in at 804,200 units, which represents a seasonally adjusted annualized rate (SAAR) of 9.8 million units, according to J.D. Power and Associates.
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U.S. Sales and SAAR Comparisons, April 2010 |
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| April 2010 | March 2010 | April 2009 | |
| New retail | 804,200 units (+22% April 2009) | 849,735 units | 659,458 units |
| Total vehicle | 1,008,800 units (+23% April 2009) | 1,063,987 units | 819,126 units |
| Retail SAAR | 9.8 million units | 9.6 million units | 8.0 million units |
| Total SAAR | 11.5 million units | 11.7 million units | 9.2 million units |
| J.D. Power and Associates. Figures for April 2010 are forecast based on the first 15 selling days of the month. | |||
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When compared with an admittedly bad April 2009, retail sales are projected to increase by 22% in April 2010, and the selling rate is expected to increase by 1.8 million units.
Retail transactions are the most accurate measurement of true underlying consumer demand for new vehicles, according to Power, which gathers real-time transaction data from more than 8,900 retail franchises in the United States.
‘While new-vehicle retail sales in April are benefiting from the continuation of March’s incentive programs, average incentives per vehicle are substantially lower, at $2,800, compared with $3,400 one year ago,’ said Jeff Schuster, executive director of global forecasting at J.D. Power and Associates.
Incentives continue but down
‘Compared with March, incentives are down by approximately $200, which suggests that the likelihood of an outright incentive war is now lower. This decline in incentives, due to a lower percentage of previous-year models in inventory this year, and the upturn in volume from last April have created a healthier environment, which is consistent with the improved first-quarter financials being reported,’ Schuster claimed.
Perhaps, but fleet sales remain significantly higher than one year ago. Fleet volume is forecasted to total 205,000 units for the month, up 28% from April 2009. Total light-vehicle sales for April are projected to come in at 1,008,800 units, an increase of 23%, compared with one year ago.
April’s total SAAR is projected to come in at 11.5 million units, down slightly from March, which reflects a change in the fleet mix to 20% from much higher levels earlier this year.
North American production
Production in North America continues an upward trend from low levels last year, with volume in March coming in at 1,084,000 units, 60% higher than one year ago. Production in the first quarter of 2010 ended at nearly 2.9 million units, 71% higher than the same period last year.
Looking forward, the second quarter of 2010 is projected to be up 56%, compared with last year, with volume at 2.8 million units. Inventory was at a 53-day supply at the beginning of April, once again less than the industry norm of a 60-day supply.
“The concern that the increase in production in the first quarter would outpace the selling rate and create an inventory glut has subsided,” said Schuster.
J.D. Power and Associates is increasing its North American production forecast for 2010 by 3% to 11.0 million units. This represents an increase of 30% from 8.5 million units in 2009.