Is Jaguar readying a replacement for the largely unloved X-Type?

It was, for a time, the best-selling Jaguar ever, but when the British marque decided to abandon the small sedan, few wept at the departure of a model that had seldom received favorable reviews.  Yet the question remains whether any luxury brand with even modest mainstream aspirations can survive without an offering in the compact segment – and there are growing indications that a new “Baby” Jag just might be headed for production.

The original X-Type suffered from the fact that it was a compromise design, sharing much of its underlying platform and componentry with the Mondeo, the mid-market compact produced by Jaguar’s former parent, Ford Motor Co.  Now that the British maker – and its sibling Land Rover – are owned by India’s Tata Motors, a future Baby Jaguar would almost certainly feature an entirely unique platform, or a heavily modified version of the chassis used by the larger and more expensive Jaguar XF.

The British maker has confirmed that it plans to increase its line-up in a bid to boost what are admittedly marginal sales.  The all-new 2011 XJ marks the start of that campaign, but despite its hefty price tag, a luxury maker can rarely survive solely on large premium models.  In today’s highline market, mid- and compact products are the high-demand offerings, the BMW 3-Series proving the point.

A compact sports car, smaller than the current XK, is under development, Jaguar officials confirm.  But beyond that, the maker is being unusually cagey about future products.  In an interview with TheDetroitBureau.com earlier this year, Jaguar’s managing director Mike O’Driscoll said there were no plans for a new Baby sedan, though his carefully worded comments didn’t rule out the possibility of changes to that strategy.

And since the hiring of former Opel boss Carl-Peter Forster as Tata’s chief executive, insiders say many changes are, indeed, being made.

The British publication AutoExpress went so far as to claim Forster has confirmed plans to add an X-Type replacement – though Jaguar officials vehemently deny that and, notably, the U.K. publication failed to offer any substantiating comments from the German executive.

But sources hint that within the various reports circulating in recent days there’s a glimmer of what Jaguar is at least seriously considering.

A replacement would bear a far more distinctive Jaguar design, in keeping with the curves and angles of the new XJ and current XF, especially the strong and aggressive grille.

Jaguar has been steadily shifting from traditional steel to lighter aluminum platforms, and that could be the route taking with a next-generation X-Type.  Like other makers, Tata has been pressing Jag’s product development team to adopt more flexible platforms that can be shared among different models.  But whether they can stretch the XJ “architecture” all the way down to a compact car is uncertain.  The challenge will be holding down the price premium for the more expensive material, no simple challenge in the compact segment.

As for powertrains, Jaguar is expected to turn to a mix of downsized gas and diesel offerings – though oil-burners would likely be limited to the European market, as there’s relatively little demand for the technology in North America, Japan or China.

When the original X-Type was announced, a decade back, former Ford CEO Jacques Nasser expected it to drive sales for the brand to at least 200,000 a year.  Though it did outsell the bigger Jaguar models, the Baby sedan and wagon pair never came close to meeting expectations.

The marque has been living on global volumes of well under 100,000 a year for quite some time, though last month’s sales soared 59%, to 6,776.

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