Organizing the transplants could be critical to the UAW's survival, warns King.

The long-stalled bid to organize foreign-owned “transplant” assembly lines has become the single over-riding priority of the United Auto Workers Union.  And it could be leading to an epic battle between a weakened union and a “damaged” automotive giant.

Two decades ago, the transplants were little more than an after-thought, but these days, with foreign brands controlling more than half the American car market – and a major share of the “imports” actually being built in the U.S. – the organization drive could be essential to the UAW’s survival, acknowledges the union’s new president, Bob King.

Earlier this month, King fired a warning shot at an automotive conference in Detroit, alerting industry leaders that the UAW will ramp up its recruiting drive – and likely focusing on one key manufacturer to spearhead that effort.  While the choice of a target may take another 90 days, King broadly hinted that Toyota may find itself in the crosshairs.

“This is about whether we survive as a meaningful force in America or not,” said King, during a conference in Washington, D.C.

The idea of picking a target is a tried-and-true UAW practice.  Later this year, the union will almost certainly name just one of Detroit’s Big Three as a target for negotiating a new contract that, once in place, labor negotiators will attempt to replicate with the other domestic manufacturers.

Toyota, sources suggest, would be a sound target for the organizing drive, which has, over the years, failed to achieve any gains.  Until now, the only transplants to accept UAW representation were those established as joint ventures between foreign manufacturers and one of the Detroit Three.  That included the recently-shuttered NUMMI plant, near San Francisco, which was operated, for a quarter-century, as a joint venture between General Motors and Toyota.

GM abandoned the facility as part of its bankruptcy reorganization, in 2009.  Toyota decided to abandon the NUMMI plant last year – shifting production of the compact Corolla to an all-new – and notably non-union — factory soon to open near Tupelo, Mississippi.

UAW officials claim Toyota has actively campaigned, over the years, to keep its workers from organizing – a charge also leveled at transplant operators like Honda and Nissan.

But Toyota could be particularly vulnerable to a campaign designed to sully its image – which has already been tarnished by an ongoing safety scandal.  A recent study by Consumer Reports magazine found that the Japanese giant’s brand perception has plunged by nearly a quarter and is now in a “statistical dead heat” with Ford Motor Co.’s image.  (For more on the Consumer Reports study, Click Here.)

During a Detroit appearance, last week, Toyota Motor Co. CEO Akio Toyoda admitted the maker has been “damaged” by the recall problems of the last year.

UAW officials, as well as members of the rank-and-file, have been working their way around Washington, this week, meeting with lawmakers on Capitol Hill to try to drum up support – no easy task considering the results of last November’s Congressional elections.

But the UAW is getting ready to take the fight to the streets.  When the union names its organizing target, it will be a very public push, according to Richard Bensinger, director of the Autoworkers’ organizing department.

“We’re going to have some big events at their big events,” Bensinger was quoted by the Detroit News.

The union will be going after not only the public’s attention but also after investors and bankers who, it bets, might be worried about the impact of the campaign on future sales.

Toyota is already struggling to reverse the impact of the safety crisis, analysts blaming it for the fact that the maker was the only major manufacturer to post a sales decline in the U.S. market during the last three months of 2010.

In Detroit, last week, Toyota executive Steve St. Angelo tried to downplay the dispute, insisting that the maker has done nothing unfair in its bid to remain non-union, stressing that “We provide competitive wages and benefits, and we have open communications throughout the company.”

So far, no union effort to organize has reached the stage where workers were asked to vote – though the UAW failed to win majorities when it was able to put representation on the ballot elsewhere.

The union has suggested it would be willing to compromise if makers like Toyota would step back, permit organizers to make their pitch and then hold elections.  It remains to be seen whether the threat of the new attack campaign might convince makers like Toyota to agree.

But some analysts say that in the current political climate – and considering that most of the transplants are based in southern, typically union-resistant, states the union will still have an uphill battle proving to workers what it can do for them.

Significantly, the transplant organizing drive will take place in the wake of the bankruptcies at General Motors and Chrysler – which forced the UAW to approve massive concessions.  The Autoworkers will go back to the Detroit makers, later this year, to negotiate new contracts.  How that process shakes out is almost certain to be watched closely by transplant operators and their workers, as well.