The U.S. economy looks like it got a lift in November from new vehicle sales – which continue gaining momentum despite earlier concerns that the automotive market would cool down after a hot October.
Sales of new cars in November have climbed to a level last seen more than two years ago when the government’s “Cash for Clunkers” was in full swing, according to analysts who follow sales trends. Full results for the month are due December 1.
“We’ve seen six straight months of year-over-year gains for new vehicle sales, which shows positive momentum for the auto industry,” said Jesse Toprak, vice president of Industry Trends and Insights for the automotive website TrueCar.com.
“There is a strong possibility that we could reach a 14 million SAAR (seasonally adjusted annual rate) next month,” he said.
Toprak added that the SAAR during November is the best since the government-funded “Cash for Clunkers” program in the summer of 2009.
Chrysler Group LLC, Ford Motor Co. and General Motors Co. all continue to post sales increases, according to the estimates prepared by TrueCar.
“Every major automaker increased incentives this month compared to last month as they are looking to push auto sales and finish the year strong,” said Kristen Andersson, a TrueCar analyst.
Meanwhile, in its monthly sales forecast J.D. Power and Associates also reported new-vehicle retail sales are “experiencing further recovery and strength through the first half of November.”
“Retail light-vehicle sales in November are outperforming expectations on a month-to-date basis, providing good news as 2011 comes to a close and the focus starts to shift to 2012,” said John Humphrey, senior vice president of global automotive operations at J.D. Power and Associates.
October had also brought a sales surge approaching the levels last seen during the Clunkers program. And analysts credited that, in large part, to so-called pent-up-demand, many motorists finding they could no longer continue putting off plans to replace their aging vehicles.
“The improving performance of the past three months suggests that the current momentum, primarily driven by replacement demand and improvements in vehicle availability, is not an aberration,” he added.
Both of the two Japanese industry giants, Honda and Toyota, reported improved availability after months of shortages, in November – though they also raised a caution flag that flooding in Thailand might again see them struggling with production cuts.
Paul Taylor, chief economist of the National Automobile Dealers Association, also said that available inventory of popular-selling models and an aging fleet of cars and trucks on the road today are key factors why new vehicle sales will continue to improve in November.
“We’re expecting auto sales to increase as the inventory available to sell increases,” Taylor said recently. “Auto sales improved in October, but will be even better in November.”
For the life of me, I can’t understand why automotive stocks are still lagging. Everything, or nearly everything, just points to a real revival of the industry. I know GM has a problem with Europe, and this Volt thing makes me nervous, but despite certain Wall Street analysts’ attempts to throw a wet blanket on the party, things just keep looking better overall. Just my mindset, but if I had a lot of money to invest and saw a whole sector with an unexpected upside like the auto industry, and especially at the bargain basement price it is now, I’d find the dollars to be investing there.