China's Datong coal-fired generating plant.
Chinese regulators have put a premium on turning to battery power for the nation’s fast-growing automotive fleet. But a new study questions whether they are simply going to trade off one form of pollution for another.
With the vast bulk of China’s electric power coming from coal generators, the new study by the University of Tennessee, University of Minnesota, and China’s Tsinghua University suggests that for most of that country’s consumers, gasoline-powered vehicles or those using conventional hybrid-electric technology may actually be cleaner than those proponents prefer to bill as “zero-emission” vehicles, or ZEVs.
The benefits of going “green” vary by region. Across China, 68% of electricity is now generated from coal. But in some regions, such as the area around the massive Three Rivers Gorge damn project where there’s the availability of plenty of hydro power, the payoff is more substantial.
The study looked at the environmental payoff of using electric cars, bicycles and scooters in 34 major Chinese cities. And unlike some research that has focused on what comes out of the tailpipe – if there is one – the three universities also examined the emissions from energy sources used to power those vehicles.
In smog-choked Beijing, the study shows that a battery car is only about as clean as a vehicle getting 26 mpg, about what a midsize model with a less than state-of-the-art V-6 might produce. In Chengdu, in China’s Southwest, cleaner electricity generation means a battery car is as clean as a vehicle getting 42 mpg – still less than a hybrid like the Toyota Prius.
The report, published in the journal Environmental Science Technology, concluded that in China overall,” In terms of health impacts, e-cars typically perform better than diesel cars, worse than gasoline cars, and comparably to diesel buses.”
Where battery power does have a plus is in terms of electric bikes which are light enough that they require very little energy and have advantages over other forms of powered transportation.
Whether that new study will influence government policy seems uncertain, especially considering the strong commitment Beijing has made to battery technology – in part because it hopes to become one of the leaders in the development of both electric vehicles and the underlying technologies that they rely on as battery car production ramps up worldwide.
The central government has offered a number of incentives to promote battery cars, including not only cash givebacks but the ability for an electric vehicle buyer to sidestep new rules that subject motorists to a registration lottery system in crowded cities like Beijing.
China has already experienced what the researchers called, “the single largest adoption of alternative fuel vehicles in history, with over 100 million vehicles purchased in the past decade, more than all other countries combined.” However, the vast majority of those are battery bikes and should provide a net plus for China’s air.
But as more and more electric vehicles get on the road smoggy cities like Beijing could get even dirtier unless China finds a way to clean up its electric grid.