Early returns on March new vehicle sales numbers suggest that Americans are continuing to buy at a near record pace.
As analysts sift through the early sales numbers from March they have reached some different conclusions, but the overall picture remains relatively stable with the money spent on new vehicles setting a record as sales momentum begins to slow.
J.D. Power & Associates estimated that new-vehicle retail sales in March are expected to drop 2% lower on a selling-day-adjusted basis, which is the first time there has been a year-over-year decline in sales since August 2010.
However, Kelly Blue Book offered a different interpretation, estimating that March sales are expected to increase 8% year-over-year to a total of 1.66 million units in March 2016, resulting in an estimated 17.2 million seasonally adjusted annual rate or SAAR. Two additional selling days will help this month’s volume totals as the SAAR will stay relatively consistent with recent months.
“The industry continues to maintain its momentum in March as we expect the highest volume of any month in more than 10 years,” said Tim Fleming, analyst for Kelley Blue Book. “However, we continue to follow indicators that demand for new cars is weakening, while there is increased incentive spending and an increasing share of fleet sales,” he added.
Flemng said the 1.66 million units will bring the first quarter total to 4.15 million, which is up 5.5% year-over-year, making this the second highest first quarter on record, surpassed only by Q1 2000. This also could be the highest March sales total since 2000, when sales also hit 1.66 million units, and the highest volume total of any month since July 2005.
Aided by the two additional selling days—March 2016 has 27 selling days, compared with 25 in March 2015—new-vehicle retail sales on a pure volume basis this month are projected to reach 1,299,600 units, up from 1,226,596 in March 2015, according to J.D. Power, and LMC Automotive.
The seasonally adjusted annualized rate (SAAR) for retail sales in March 2016 is expected to reach 13.4 million units, down slightly from 13.5 million units in March 2015, J.D. Power and LMC said.
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Total light-vehicle sales in March are expected to reach 1,646,000, down 1% on a selling-day adjusted basis from 1,543,523 from a year ago, but the strongest total sales in March since 2000. The SAAR for total sales is projected at 17 million units in March 2016, down 0.1 million units from 17.1 million a year ago.
In addition, the average transaction prices of $30,800, consumer spending on new cars will exceed $40 billion, a first for the month of March. The previous March record was $37.5 billion in 2015. Lease penetration through March 20 is 30%, a record level for the month of March but down from 32% in February.
In March, new light-vehicle sales, including fleet, are expected to hit 1,660,000 units, up 8% from March 2015 and up 24% from February 2016.
KBB estimates retail sales are expected to account for 76.1% of volume in March 2016, down from 77.2% in March 2015.
Fiat Chrysler could have the best month of all major manufacturers, with double-digit growth expected in March. The largest year-over-year improvements will be from Dodge Grand Caravan and Chrysler Town & Country minivans, which were low on inventory at this time last year. The Jeep brand also should post another record in March with year-over-year strength headlined by the Renegade, KBB indicated in its analysis of March sales.
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Kelley Blue Book also anticipates American Honda will report double-digit growth in March, led by the new Civic. In addition, the new HR-V continues to perform well and collect industry awards, including Kelley Blue Book’s 5-Year Cost to Own Award. Meanwhile, the Honda Pilot is one of the fastest selling models this month, averaging just 18 days in dealer inventory.
Premium vehicles sales, which exhibited weakness in February, are down 9.7%, with only the compact SUV, compact sporty car and small SUV segments showing growth, J.D. Power said.
“The retail sales pace in March exhibited a slower-than-normal acceleration during the month, resulting in the retail SAAR coming in slightly below last year’s level,” said Deirdre Borrego, senior vice president and general manager of automotive data and analytics at J.D. Power.
“Sales are being supported by a number of factors, including incentives, elevated leasing and long-term loans. While these factors are delivering benefits to the industry by enabling record revenues, we need to be mindful of the risk they pose to the long-term health of the industry.”
However, Jeff Schuster, senior vice of forecasting at LMC Automotive, noted, “Auto sales are not yet peaking and the outlook for the year remains robust, even with some retail softness and noise in March. In fact, year-to-date volume is still nearly 5% ahead of year-to-date March 2015, leaving some room for additional volatility and the expected slower growth rates later in the year.”
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LMC Automotive’s forecast for 2016 is holding at 17.8 million units for total light-vehicle sales and 14.5 million units for retail light-vehicle sales.