It looks like customers deserted Explorer in droves. Dealers were successful in keeping fleeing Explorer owners in the family

Generally, Detroiters have heaved sighs of relief from July sales reports, as they respond to hope of improved economy on one hand and the effect of Cash for Clunkers on the other.

But when you analyze the results carefully, especially by models, July sales compared to same month a year ago have been quite uneven, with some surprising winners and sinners. I count as winners any model whose July sales in 2009 improved over those of July 2008. That list, accordingly, is quite long, led by Ford Motor Company cars and a sprinkling of others.

There are a lot of factors that can influence why some are ahead and others behind that have little to do with their perceived year-to-year popularity, such things as inventory levels, factory and dealer incentives, contests, cash backs and astute advertising. One unusual promotion has been Hyundai’s offer of $1.50/gallon gas for a whole year. Toyota got out early with advertising it had 25 vehicle models for sale that were eligible for clunker trade-ins, and Pontiac’s good showing relative to Saturn and Saab, the other two newly orphaned GM brands, could be accounted for by traditional Pontiac fans who want to get them while they can.

Ford’s biggest car seller was Focus at 21,830, up from 15,200 units the year before, followed by Fusion at 17,610, up from 10,610 in July 2008. Surprisingly, Lincoln Town Car sales of 1,841 nearly doubled the year before number and even step-child Mercury Grand Marquis managed to squeeze out a gain, 2,667 over 2,569. Milan sales came to 2,934, up from 1,836.

On the truck side, of course Ford numbers were off in total, but there were some model gainers: Escape at 20,241 nearly doubled the year ago figure, Flex managed 3,631 against 2,200 and Ranger—another step-child—counted 7,695 deliveries, up from 4,677.

To put these in perspective, though, Ford workhorses suffered declines, though volumes were still high relative to other vehicles in the marketplace. The F-Series made 36,327 deliveries in July, down from 44,829 a year ago, but remained the industry sales leader. Mariner, Mercury’s version of the Escape, gained over the previous year, 3,682 to 2.159 while the longtime SUV king, Explorer, languished with only 3,108 sales, down from 5,404 in 2008.

Who’d have thought Mariner, though armed with a hybrid version, would ever outsell Explorer? Overall, counting cars, trucks and Volvo, Ford Motor Company July sales finished at 164,795 for the month, up from 160,990 the year before, only a slight gain.

Automotive pundits are crediting Ford’s performance to the public perception that Ford has its act together, especially since it didn’t have to depend on, so far, taxpayer largess to stay in business.

Actually, it looks like customers deserted the Explorer in droves – and there were a lot of them out there – and used Clunker taxpayer cash to buy other Ford models. Dealers were successful in keeping fleeing Explorer owners in the family.

Winners

Here’s a list of other Winners, models whose sales in July increased over the year before:

• BMW 7 Series and X6;
• Chrysler PT Cruiser;
• Dodge Avenger, Caliber, Caravan and Journey;
• Jeep Compass and Patriot;
• Mercedes E Class;
• Volvo’s 40, 60 and 70 Series;
• Chevrolet Impala and Equinox;
• Pontiac G5, G8 and Vibe;
• Honda Civic and CRV;
• Hyundai Accent, Elantra, Genesis and Sonata;
• Land Rover LR2 and Range Rover;
• Mazda 6;
• Nissan Z and Rogue;
• Subaru Forester, Impreza and Legacy;
• Lexus RX hybrid;
• Toyota Camry hybrid, Prius, Highlander, Rav4 and Tacoma;
• Audi A5;
• VW Jetta, Routan and Tiguan.

Some of the numbers were quite small, such as Land Rover LR2’s 459 over 433, but nevertheless they bested the prior year month, the yardstick here.

The top ten models sold in the Clunkers program in July were: Focus, Corolla, Civic, Prius, Camry, Elantra, Fit, Escape, Caliber and Cobalt.

The Clunkers traded for the NHTSA cash allowance included Explorer 2 and 4wd, F-150 2 and 4wd, Grand Cherokee 2- and 4wd, Caravan, Blazer 4wd, Silverado 1500 2wd and Windstar.

From the relatively high sales of small SUVs in July, it looks like folks were trading down for better fuel economy. It also looks like the import brands walked off with the bouquets, but they at least had the reputations for the most part of having less expensive, more fuel-efficient models.

Sinners

On the other hand the list of Sinners, those whose sales were off by a wide margin, (I didn’t bother to set a % bar) include some very good well-established models as well as, surprisingly, some economy cars:

• Smart ForTwo;
• Buick Lucerne;
• All Cadillac models (no leasing?);
• Chevrolet Aveo;
• Hummer, Saturn and Saab (dead brands walking);
• Honda cars and Honda total;
• Mazda B and Tribute (both clones of Ford models which did well);
• Infiniti;
• Nissan trucks total;
• Porsche;
• Suzuki;
• Lexus;
• Scion cars;
• Toyota Avalon, Camry, Yaris, Corolla/Matrix and total sales;
• Volkswagen total cars.

Some of these were not down by large margins or even sold at large volumes (Camry, for example), but nevertheless lost ground, the yardstick here.

I realize that all these numbers and long lists may cause your eyes to roll, but fans of particular models may wonder how their own picks fared at the extremes in July sales. Most news accounts of sales are the easy stuff, like Top Ten in total volume. That’s why TheDetroitBureau.com publishes extensive sales data and analysis each month – so you can get a more in depth view.

You will notice that a number of known economy cars did not do well compared to July 2008, and I can’t think of good explanation except that in the year ago month, gasoline was roughly $4 a gallon and therefore economy car sales were high then but have eased off in 2009 (Washington views not withstanding).

It will be interesting to see how August sales come out. Stay tuned.