November auto sales are expected to decline 1% despite a bump from Black Friday.
Even with the help of a big day on Black Friday, new car sales are still expected to fall in November as analysts predict a drop of 1% year-over-year for an estimated 17.1 million seasonally adjusted annual rate or SAAR.
“Following two months of more than 18 million SAAR, we project November sales to return to the low 17 million range,” said Tim Fleming, analyst for Kelley Blue Book.
“The strong numbers from the last two months were influenced by replacement demand in the hurricane-impacted regions of Texas and Florida, which appears to be largely satisfied at this point,” Fleming said.
“Despite the lower SAAR, this will be the second highest November on record, trailing only November 2016, so more than a few sales records could be broken this month.”
(Want a Black Friday deal? Go to a dealership, not a mall. For the story, Click Here.)
Overall sales this year are expected to drop slightly, Fleming added.
Even a push from Black Friday won't be enough to help automakers avoid a drop in sales in November.
After a record year of sales in 2016, the third in a row, and seven consecutive annual increases, Kelley Blue Book’s forecast for 2017 calls for sales in the range between 17 million and 17.2 million units, which represents a 1.5 to 3% decrease from last year.
For November, new light-vehicle sales, including fleet, are expected to hit 1,360,000 units, down 1% compared with November 2016 and up 0.7% from October 2017
Retail sales are expected to account for 82.2% of volume in November 2017, down from 82.4% in November 2016.
For November 2017, Kelley Blue Book anticipates mixed sales results by manufacturer. American Honda is expected to have one of the strongest months and grow volume by 3% this month, helped by their strong line-up of cars. Despite the overall consumer shift toward SUVs, Honda’s cars are still faring well and are now bolstered by the well-received new Accord.
(Click Here for more about flat auto sales in October.)
Hyundai-Kia, though, stands to lose nearly a full point of market share in November 2017, hurt most by the volume competing in car segments that could average nearly 20% declines.
While Hyundai-Kia’s fleet sales are projected to be down 20% and explain part of the drop, retail sales of the midsize Kia Optima and Hyundai Sonata sedans appear particularly hard hit this month, perhaps affected by the recent launches of the new Toyota Camry and Honda Accord.
General Motors and Fiat Chrysler Automobiles N.V. are expected to lose ground in November, while Ford and Subaru should post gains, according to KBB’s estimate.
Sales of compact sport-utility vehicles are expected to climb nearly 8% for the month, with nearly all models in the segment showing year-over-year improvement. The Toyota RAV4 and all-new Jeep Compass could post some of the strongest gains. The top-selling segment in the industry continues to become even more popular, with market share growing by a full point so far this year.
(To see more about U.S. new vehicle sales rebounding in September, Click Here.)
However, midsized cars sales continue to be a struggle, despite the redesigns of the segment’s two best-selling models, the Toyota Camry and Honda Accord. The remainder of the segment is likely to decline into the foreseeable future, as consumers increasingly opt for crossovers over sedans, KBB predicted.