Slow recovery is predicted, with the gasoline price wild card an unknown factor.

U.S. light-vehicle sales will reach just short of 12 million units in 2010 as credit becomes more available and consumer confidence improves with rising employment, according to Paul Taylor, chief economist for the National Automobile Dealers Association.

Speaking at the NADA Convention & Exposition in Orlando, Taylor said, “Industry sales will increase to 11.9 million light vehicles for 2010.”

This is an improvement from 10.4 million in 2009, but still far, far below the 17 million units the industry was feasting on before reckless practices on Wall Street collapsed the Global financial markets in the fall of 2008.

The NADA number is lower than more optimistic estimates from General Motors and other automakers, which are hoping that U.S.  sales top more than 12 million or even higher.

Consultancy AutoPacific also forecasts industry volume of 11.4 million units in 2010, as unemployment hampers a faster industry sales recovery.

Taylor reported that sales of crossover utilities and mid-size cars improved in January, compared to the same month last year.

January sales of crossovers, the only vehicle segment whose sales improved in 2009, were up about 14% compared to January 2009. Sales of mid-size cars are also gaining, he said, outpacing last year’s monthly result by about 21%.

Hybrid vehicle sales declined in 2009, but less than the overall industry. Toyota continues to lead the way, accounting for more than two-thirds of hybrid sales in 2009.

Developments in 2009 also had an impact on automakers’ shares of the market. Taylor reported that General Motors and Chrysler both lost market share in 2009 as they underwent bankruptcies and slowed production. Ford Motor Company and Hyundai improved their respective shares of the market.

One bright spot for the industry in 2009 was “cash for clunkers,” giving sales a big boost in the fourth quarter.

“Cash for clunkers made new-vehicle ownership possible for many consumers who have never purchased a new car before,” Taylor said.

“It was also a boon for dealers, who saw showroom traffic increase dramatically. Many new cars and trucks were sold to buyers who did not have a qualifying clunker trade-in,” Taylor added.

Slow new-car sales in 2008 and 2009 contributed to a shortage of used cars that lifted used-car prices.

According to data provided to NADA through a partnership with the National Auto Auction Association, the average price of one- to five-year-old vehicles improved last year in every segment. “And strong used-car prices help new-car sales,” Taylor said.

All used-vehicle segments posted double-digit percentage price increases year-over-year in January, compared to the low points experienced during 2009.

Gas prices, of course, remain the “wild card” factor for the year, as some forecasters expect fuel prices to reach and top $3 per gallon.

National Automobile Dealers Association, which closely monitors used car prices, says Toyota values are expected to experience above-average deterioration during the next six months and settle in at a lower premium, compared to substitute models with comparable quality. Therefore, there is more opportunity for Toyota to put incentives on trade-ins here.