Once again, as a result this time of North Korea being fingered for sinking a South Korean Navy vessel, the Cheonan, even the remote possibility of a war on the Korean peninsula of Northeast Asia should be creating a lot more concern than it has in the United States.
The concern, raised pointedly not quite a year ago by North Korea’s relentless saber-rattling with rockets and nukes, should not be just among diplomats, military strategists and the White House—but rather by American consumers and the dealers and importers of products made in South Korea.
Yes, there should be a universal worry because the Korean peninsula conceivably could again become a meat-grinder of casualties for young American soldiers, sailors, airmen and marines the way it did exactly 60 years ago. Now the U. S. has only 28,000 troops in Korea and is heavily committed – critics say over committed – in Iraq and Afghanistan.
Even if short lasting, a shooting war in Korea would be devastating to the U. S. consumer economy, including the “big box” retailers like Wal-Mart and Best Buy. As I punch in the letters forming this article, they are appearing on a flat screen monitor made by Samsung, a South Korean conglomerate. Samsung also made the cell phone in my shirt pocket, and the TV in the family room. My wife’s cell phone, like mine from Verizon Wireless, is manufactured by LG, another Republic of Korea electronics maker, once part of the Hyundai Group.
Hyundai is arguably the most successful new car company in the American market in the last two decades. In the first four months of this year, the leading Korean automotive company group (including Kia) retailed 262,264 cars and trucks here, of which the vast majority were imported. That made it the seventh largest vehicle seller in the U. S. market, remarkable for a company that a decade ago was marginal, kept in business by give-away warranties and credit offered to low-rated buyers turned down elsewhere.
GM also has a stake in South Korea with its Chevrolet Aveo sub-compact supplied by Daewoo.
The corporate headquarters of these Korean companies are located in Seoul, the world’s second largest city in population (nearly 21 million) after Tokyo. Seoul, unfortunately, is within spitting distance, so to speak, of the DMZ border established by the 1953 UN-negotiated truce between democratic, uber-capitalist South Korea and hard-line Marxist dictatorship-ruled North Korea.
You could not fire a rifle from the North into South Korea’s capital of Seoul, but long-range artillery, probably, and rockets for sure. According to Time magazine, the North has 13,000 artillery tubes zeroed in on Seoul, and 10 Million South Koreans live within 30 miles of the DMZ. The major port of Inchon is right next door to Seoul.
Another Korean War, regardless of outcome, would be a disaster for South Korea’s economy and the many customers worldwide of that economy. So the South Korean government likely will be very restrained in its response to the sinking of its ship.
A nut case rules North Korea – Kim Jong II, who last year declared his 27-year-old youngest son as heir apparent. Even worse is that the self-styled Democratic Peoples Republic of Korea (DPRK) military is naturally very powerful and seemingly equally irresponsible, as demonstrated by its evident torpedoing of the South Korean ship in March. I do not have to repeat all the DPRK’s nuclear and ICBM threats that the mainstream media have been feasting on for years. (See: U.S. Implicates North Korean Leader in Attack – Ken Zino)
The Peoples Republic of China (PRC), on the other hand, may be more nervous about instability in the DPRK than anyone in South Korea, Russia or the U.S. When I was on an educational mission sponsored by the U. S. State and Defense Departments to the PRC four years ago, our group heard from top Chinese officials that they fear war on the Korean peninsula could be touched off by mistake, especially a power-play within North Korea.
What most Americans do not realize is that China believes a domestic blow-up in the DPRK would migrate to the PRC, if for no other reason than hordes of refugees crossing the long border between the two Asian countries.
So in the matter of a resumption of the Korean war, the Chinese are perhaps our best friends, whereas the last time around in 1950 their “volunteer army” swarmed over our General McArthur’s forces like hungry fleas over a dog. Fortunately, North Korea knows that if China cuts the umbilical cord of supply, they cannot go to war against anybody, even their own people.
There’s another report being circulated that the smaller South Korean armed forces could nevertheless defeat an invasion by the North because of better health, better training, modern weapons and the fact they’ve got something worth defending besides the abstract comfort of freedom. This is probably wishful thinking if for no other reason than the size and proximity of North Korean forces.
Still, mistakes can happen.
The problem is, even with brief hostilities, there would be hell to pay in the American economy. Thousands of Hyundai, Kia, Chevrolet, Samsung and LG merchants, to name only a few, would soon find themselves without new products to sell or parts to repair them. And I get the impression from talking to one of the major Korean companies that there is no contingency plan should there be a war. They are too busy cashing in on America’s thirst for their products.
So America’s stake in peaceful relations on the Korean peninsula is a lot closer to home than you might think.
I agree that a shooting war in Korea would be an economic disaster… however, I don’t think the U.S. currently has the stomach for another war. Certainly not in the Obama administration. I expect that North Korea will be appeased with whatever it wants.
Gee, maybe we should consider the benefits of making some things in the U.S. again. No doubt Wall Street would do everything in their power to keep that from happening though. After all, it’s really all about them, isn’t it?
Interesting article. I don’t understand why North Korea is constantly being so belligerently. Kim Jung Il must just be a nutter. Because no good would ever arise from the way he’s acting.
TAP, even if we had the “stomach” for another war, I sincerely doubt we have the ability. Unless the barbarians come to US shores, and everyone is drafted, I think we are overtasking our military as it is.
What would you suggest the US do, instead of “appeasement”…nukes?
The Chinese probably have more to lose than we do, they could be the policeman that the US can’t/won’t anymore; since they have so much of our money let them spend it on peacekeeping.
And I don’t discount the idea that the N. Koreans might have trouble with a full fledged war, as they are a basket case of a starving country.
But is there anything made in S. Korea that isn’t made somewhere else as well? I think there’s a couple of old Whirlpool plants kicking around that they abandoned for cheaper labor costs (and no instability in Mexico either, LOL) that could be ramped up for refrigerator production.
Cheap cars, maybe not, but cars there will be, along with appliances and electronics.
It would be bad for Hyundai, Samsung, the other chaebol, and the people of the Koreas, but I don’t see us being unable to acquire any consumer goods we want in some form.