Preliminary DoT studies of Toyota "black boxes" suggest many, if not most, sudden acceleration accidents could be the result of driver error.

Has Toyota gotten a bum rap on sudden acceleration?

Since last October, Toyota has recalled more than millions of vehicles in the U.S. alone.  While the problems cover a vast array of issues, from excessive corrosion to faulty stability control systems, the vast majority are involved in a pair of recalls designed to fix problems that could cause Toyota vehicles to suddenly race out of control against the driver’s will.

The National Highway Traffic Safety Administration has received hundreds of complaints and the issue, involving Toyota products, has been linked to scores of deaths, hundreds of injuries and even more accidents.  Concerns about the issue – and allegations of a cover-up by senior Toyota executives – led to contentious hearings on Capitol Hill, last February, as well as a record $16.4 million fine levied by the Department of Transportation against Toyota.

Yet DoT researchers may wind up being the best friend Toyota has right now.  They have so far analyzed dozens of data recorders, the so-called “black boxes” – taken from Toyota vehicles involved in apparent sudden acceleration crashes.  Though NHTSA won’t officially comment, the Wall Street Journal claims its sources reveal that preliminary results show the vast majority of the incidents were caused by driver error, not by vehicle defects.

“Some drivers who said their Toyotas and Lexuses surged out of control were mistakenly flooring the accelerator when they intended to jam on the brakes,” the paper reports.

In other cases, the black box data indicates drivers did not apply their brakes to try to counteract what they claimed were vehicles racing out of control.  In only one case the government studied does it appear that a mechanical problem – a floor mat jammed under the accelerator – led to a fatal crash. Whether mechanical problems could have contributed to a driver error is not necessarily something that would be revealed by data recorder studies.

Significantly, regulators, not Toyota, chose which of the data recorders to study.  But because of the way the black boxes work it has made it difficult for the maker to ascertain data from older crashes.  That could be a concern because there is some evidence that since the issue of sudden acceleration gained widespread attention in the media there have been numerous “copycat” cases where drivers claim they had a runaway car to cover their own mistakes.

If NHTSA validates the preliminary findings it would raise echoes of another era.  Back in the mid-1980s, the then-new Audi 5000 sedan came in for wide criticism as hundreds of owners filed complaints of sudden acceleration eerily similar to what has happened with Toyota.  But in 1989, federal safety regulators gave the 5000 a clean bill of health, putting the blame on driver error, as well.

Despite that finding, the Audi brand was sorely damaged in the eyes of the public and, in 1992, with U.S. sales down about 80%, to barely 12,000 a year, the Volkswagen subsidiary gave serious consideration to abandoning the American market.  Audi ultimately hung on but its sales continue to lag its luxury rivals in this market, even though it is now on par with the likes of Mercedes-Benz and BMW globally.

Significantly, even though the government cleared its hardware of blame, Audi redesigned its pedal layout to make it less likely motorists would go for the brake and mistakenly hit the gas pedal.

Toyota has acknowledged that it has two mechanical issues of its own that likely have caused at least some of its products to race out of control.  The October 2009 recall focused on loose floor mats that can slide under and jam the accelerator pedal.  (The maker claimed that drivers could still bring the vehicle to a halt by pressing hard on the brake.)  The January callback focused on potentially sticky accelerator pedals.

The Japanese maker has vigorously fought critics who continue to argue that hidden electronic gremlins could also be causing some Toyota vehicles to race out of control.  But unless those glitches also cause the black boxes to record the wrong data, the preliminary DoT study seems to rule such problems out, or at least downplay their likelihood.

Nonetheless, Toyota’s safety crisis could drag on, much as Audi’s did.  Even with the 1989 NHTSA report, a number of juries sided with owners who sued the German maker.  Toyota is now facing 100s of lawsuits related to sudden acceleration, as well as its handling of the matter.  Various industry analysts have suggested the company could eventually spend as much as $2 billion or more defending itself, or on settlements and judgments.

The bigger question is what impact a federal ruling would have on Toyota’s once-sterling image.  Audi, prior to the 5000 fiasco, was the fastest-growing nameplate in the American market.  Toyota, until recently, had a reputation for providing generally bullet-proof, if often bland, vehicles.

Putting the focus on driver error would not be the equivalent of a clean bill of health, however, cautions Kurt Sanger, automotive analyst with Deutsche Bank.  It would “not exonerate Toyota for incidents involving sticky accelerator pedals or entrapped floor mats that impaired the operation of the vehicle,” he said.

Sanger adds that, “Audi was not cleared until significant damage was done. In Toyota’s instance, we tend to believe there is some damage in the minds of consumers and that’s likely to be difficult to reverse and that has only been reinforced by subsequent recalls on quality related issues.”

In just the last month, for example, Toyota has had to put a stop sale on its Lexus HS250h hybrid because of government crash tests showing the vehicle leaks excessive amounts of fuel following a rear-end crash.  And another 138,000 Lexus sedans sold in the U.S. were recalled due to faulty engines – an issue some critics contend the maker may have covered up for as much as two years.

Complicating matters, Toyota has steadily fallen in the quality charts, dropping from sixth to 21^st in the closely-watched J.D. Power Initial Quality Survey, issued last month.  Meanwhile, only one of its products took a win in the latest AutoPacific Ideal Vehicle Awards, which focus on which products owners are most passionate about.  The Lexus RX was the top-ranked Premium Luxury Crossover SUV.  By comparison, Ford Motor Co. took 11 of the IVA’s 27 product segments.

In an interview earlier this year, Toyota’s top U.S. sales executive, Don Esmond, acknowledged that even after the maker works past its safety and quality problems, it will have a tougher time than it did before the scandals began.

“Did we tarnish the brand?” Esmond asked,  “Yes, though I don’t think we rusted the armor through.  We admit we stumbled, and how fast we recover, we’ll have to wait and see.  We still have a loyal customer base.  The unanswered question is how difficult it will be to conquest buyers (from competitors).  That will probably be a little more difficult.”

Considering its these so-called “conquests” that were Toyota’s engine of growth, over the last few decades, this could be a serious problem.