Unstoppable? The Chevy Camaro is set to outpace the Ford Mustang for the first time since 1978.
Deck the halls … and clear out the garage. December is normally one of the weaker months of the year when it comes to car sales, consumers typically focusing on gifts small enough to fit under the tree. But preliminary signs suggest that, this year, recession weary buyers are spending big, with car sales “significantly beating expectations,” according to J.D. Power and Associates.
Through the first two weeks of the month, dealers tracked by the California-based research firm report that December could, in fact, bring the best retail sales numbers of 2010, an annualized sales rate of 10.8 million.
Noting that, “Retail transactions are the most accurate measurement of true underlying consumer demand for new vehicles,” Power analysts said that if trends hold, December retail sales will come in at 936,300 cars, trucks and crossovers, a 19% increase from year-ago levels. That would be a “robust finish for 2010,” according to Jeff Schuster, Power’s executive director of global forecasting.
“Even with the possibility that sales in the third week of December may be affected by the recent winter storms, the strength in sales during the second week is expected to continue through the rest of the month,” said Schuster. “As a result, it appears that 2010 will end on a high note.”
Can Toyota stop its sales slide?
If there’s a downside to December, it’s the anticipated 3% decline in fleet sales – which cover not only daily rent-a-car companies but big corporate buyers, as well. Fleet volumes are expected to dip below 200,000, the lowest number all year, and equal to 17% of the total U.S. automotive market.
In years past, manufacturers have often used fleets as a dumping ground to keep their factories running smoothly. And while some makers have ramped up fleet volumes in recent months, most makers have been trimming back, especially on low-profit business with the rental companies.
All told, the U.S. car market should come to 1.13 million for December, a 14% year-over-year jump. That would work out to a 12.4 million SAAR – or seasonally-adjusted annual sales rate – the best of 2010, and a notable jump from the already resurgent market of October and November.
Industry watchers will be looking to see which brands lead the charts, and which lag. Of particular interest is Toyota, which was the only major brand to score a sales decline during the prior two months.
Luxury marques will also be under the microscope. In the race to year-end, many start pumping cars into the market by offering hefty incentives that can help them capture the sales crown.
Barring a sudden and expected setback, meanwhile, the Chevrolet Camaro appears certain to take the lead in the pony car segment, besting arch-rival Ford Mustang for the first time since 1978.