Marty’s Marketing Minutia

Exclusive New Consumer Research Predicts Monthly Automotive Brands Marketshare Points Gain or Loss

More than 300 different models of new cars are for sale in dealer showrooms right now. The important question is what are consumers with good credit scores going to buy in this scary market?

Oh, yeah … there’s that research of what “they” want according to focus panel BS. Much automotive research is based on the past — what the consumer has purchased and what they said they’d like in the future. Not what he or she is going to buy. And that’s rather important, make that vital data isn’t it? This has made it almost impossible to forecast or project sales demand with any degree of accuracy for automobile manufacturers, auto dealers and their advisors with confidence and reliability, until now! It’s a significant marketing tool that has been needed, especially now when the economy is in the ceramic receptacle. And it’s only here in MMM. 

Reliable Purchase Information           

There’s a respected marketing research firm, BIGreseach, LLC, with a unique focus on consumer purchase intentions. Every month 18,000 consumers respond to their syndicated Consumer Intentions and Actions survey which monitors the pulse of potential buyers regarding what brands and products they plan to buy next month. That’s right, next month! 

A major national retailer uses this study to determine monthly inventory levels and promotional programs based on projected consumer purchase demand for the thousands of items known as SKUs or Shop Keeping Units. 

When I first learned about this research, I had an audible “ah hah” moment. 

Auto purchases intentions had not been part of the monthly study, but I convinced them to add a few important questions about automobile purchases. Respondents are now asked “if they are planning to buy a car next month?” if the answer is “No” nothing is done, but if the answer is “Yes” the research continues asking the following questions: 

1. “What brand is your present car?
2. “Is your first choice for consideration?
3. “Is it your second choice?”

A few questions relating to buying that new vehicle are also asked: 

1. “Current vehicle type?”
2. “Type of vehicle under consideration?”
3. “Price range expected to pay?

From the answers to the above BIGresearch develops a matrix detailing every brand mentioned, the percentage of current ownership by brand, the percent of 1^st choice and 2^nd choice to create an average percentage which then drives the calculation of the “share point percentage change.” This is the critical number because it relates directly to brand currently owned. 

Here’s how to read and understand the data. In the just released March 2009 study, Acura was owned by 0.7% of the people who said they were going to buy a new car; 3.2% of the Acura owners considered Acura their first choice, 1.3% as the second choice which resulted in an average of 2.6%. This resulted in a projected 1.93% SharePoint Gain for Acura this month. 

This study is nationally projectable based on the customers of the retailer; changes in current market penetration will vary based on their consumer demographics. And that’s easy to determine by looking at the brand currently owned. 

For ease of presentation, I will use the David Letterman Top 10 Winners and Losers format. Read ’em and weep. Or smile and grin.

 Share Point Gainers/Winners, March 2009 Research 

Source: BIGresearch CIA Share point losers for March 2009. Car owned percentage

applies only to the people responding to the question,

"Do you plan to buy a new car next month?" 

Projected Share Point Loss, March 2009 – Research  

Source: BIGresearch CIA Share point losers for December 2008. Car owned percentage

applies only to the people responding to the question, "Do you plan to buy a new

car next month?"

The monthly study will also detail what type vehicle is currently owned and what is under consideration to purchase as well as the amount anticipated to be spent.

What Do Respondents Own Now … What They Plan To Buy

 This is an interesting element in the shifting patterns in ownership by vehicle types. Biggest gains were in crossover, hybrid and SUVs.

Type of New Vehicle Being Considered, March 2009

 Prices Expected to be Paid by Consumers

Consumers have a realistic view of the amount they will have to pay to get the vehicle they are considering.

Price Range of Vehicle, March 2009

This new feature in MMM will deliver fresh, demand-based information on consumers auto shopping and their changing behavior. Unlike indicators based on past performance, this data brings intelligence about the consumers buying intentions and proclivities effectively, efficiently and expeditiously. Over time dramatic shifts and changes may occur on a month to month basis will be noted and analyzed.

March Madness + the Final Four = Advertising Slam Dunk

As thousands of fans gather in Detroit this weekend for the Final Four of the NCAA Basketball Tournament at Ford Field, the numbers guys at CBS are dancing a little jig about the advertising sales growth of the three week long event known as March Madness. 

The 65 hours of hoop time generates revenue that’s almost as big as the Super Bowl according to a new report from TNS Media Intelligence. To televise the games, CBS pays paying the NCAA a base license fee of approximately $571 million covering exclusive TV, digital, radio, publishing and merchandising rights for the tournament. 

Over the past 10 years (1999-2008), advertising during the Tournament has translated into $4.2 billion of network TV spending from nearly 300 different marketers. In 2008, ad spending reached an all-time high of $643 million, a 24 percent increase from the prior year.

Dean DeBiase, CEO, TNS Media “As a sports marketing event, the collegiate basketball tournament is part of a Final Four alongside the Super Bowl and the Summer and Winter Olympics… leveraged correctly, this is a great vehicle for traditional powerhouses and Cinderella brands alike.” 

The post-season NCAA Tournament brings in more national TV ad revenue than the post-season playoffs for professional baseball, professional basketball or college football. Only the National Football League playoffs, which includes the Super Bowl, is more lucrative.

Among the major televised sporting championships, only the Super Bowl commands a higher advertising unit rate than the NCAA Men’s Basketball championship game. College hoops has higher unit ad pricing than the major college football bowl games; the NBA championship; and the MLB World Series. In terms of cost-per-thousand viewers, the NCAA Final Four games are far more expensive than any of the other annual blue-chip sporting events.

General Motors is the top gun in ad spend on March Madness followed by AT&T and Coca Cola. Last year they spent a combined $140.6 million and accounted for 22 percent of the total ad revenue. Although GM bowed out of both the Super Bowl and the Academy Awards earlier this year, its participation with March Madness continues, thanks to taxpayer monetary loans. 

Online viewership is heavily concentrated in the first two rounds of the tournament when multiple games are taking place simultaneously and fans are seeking the flexibility to view the action from out-of-home locations or watch games not being telecast on their local CBS affiliate. In 2006 Internet income amounted to $4 million, last year it was $23 million.  

Go Green! (editor’s note: the opinion expressed here is the  writer’s and does not necessarily reflect the views of TDB or our basketball knowledge, but we can hope.)

Obama’s Limo at #10 Downing Street Didn’t Fit!

According to newspapers and the BBC, President Barack Obama’s new Cadillac limo, known as the ‘Beast” was unable to easily turn around, even with a three point try in front of the Prime Minister’s residence. Click to this Sky News video from the London Times

And if you ever wondered what those black Chevy SUVs can do — if needed — to protect the President and VIPs in motorcades and caravans watch this video.  The gun seen simultaneously fires 7.62mm bullets from six barrels at up to 4000 rounds (about 66 per second) per minute. The windshield wipers must be turned on to clear the spent casings

No meaningful minutia, rant or ad stuff this week.

News, views and schmooze from the New York Show next Friday. – Marty