Analysts say strong demand for luxury cars is driving December sales.
December has become a pivotal month for car sales and this December is looking particularly strong with sales up an estimated 15% thanks to a year-end push by luxury carmakers.
In fact, some analysts are predicting that 2012 could end with one of the strongest bursts of buying seen all year, setting a torrid pace going into 2013.
The J.D. Power and Associates’ Power Information Network and LMC Automotive new-vehicle retail selling rate remains robust near the close of 2012, with potential buyers unfazed by the current level of economic uncertainty generated by the fiscal cliff negotiations in Washington D.C.
December new-vehicle retail sales are expected to come in at 1,152,500 units, which represent a seasonally adjusted annualized rate, or SAAR, of 12.2 million units. December’s selling rate remains strong and is 500,000 units higher than the expected 2012 full-year rate. Retail transactions are the most accurate measurement of true underlying consumer demand for new vehicles. When fleet sales are added in, that could push the SAAR past the 15 million units, the report estimated.
Mark Fields, Ford Motor Co.’s new Chief Operating Officer, tells TheDetroitBureau.com that the real measure of December demand won’t be seen until the last 10 days of the month, however. “That will determine the whole month,” he says, though early numbers appear promising.
Christmas specials appear to be more appealing than they have been in several years and incentives have been ramping up in recent weeks after months of steady declines. But some of the biggest marketing efforts are focused on the high-line end of the market.
According to the Power/LMC data, luxury-vehicle sales are on pace to account for 16.0% of all retail vehicles sold in December, an increase from 15.3% in November 2012 and 14.8% in December 2011. Luxury share in December is the highest in 2012 and the highest since December 2009, when it reached 16.2%.
“Luxury sales always do well this time of the year, but December is turning out to be a great month,” said John Humphrey, senior vice president of global automotive operations at J.D. Power and Associates. “New and re-designed vehicle introductions, along with enhanced incentive activity, have been key drivers of the recovery in the luxury market.”
Total light-vehicle sales in December 2012 are projected to increase 14% from December 2011, with volume at 1,358,600 units. Fleet mix is expected to reach 15%, which is consistent with a managed supply and demand market, and is the sixth consecutive month below 20%.
Jeff Schuster, senior vice president of forecasting at LMC Automotive, noted that based on strong sales in November and early December, LMC Automotive is edging up its 2012 forecast for total light-vehicle sales in the United States to 14.5 million units from 14.4 million units and maintaining the forecast for retail sales at 11.7 million units.
The forecast for 2013 remains 15 million units for total light-vehicles and 12.2 million for retail sales, but represents a slower growth rate of 4% from 2012, he said.
“The U.S. light-vehicle sales market continues to be a bright spot in the tremulous global environment,” said “The only major roadblock ahead for the U.S. market is the fiscal cliff. Assuming that hurdle is cleared, 2013 is one step closer to a stable and sustainable growth rate for autos, with volume above the 15 million unit mark.”
Light-vehicle production in North America is up 19% through November 2012, compared with the same period in 2011. Volume, with one month remaining in 2012, is nearly 14.4 million units, an increase of 2.3 million units, compared with 2011.
The total amount of unsold inventory on dealer lots in early December fell below the 70-day level—to a 69-day supply, compared with 71 days in November. The supply reduction is a result of the strong sales pace in November, which recovered rapidly from the impact of Hurricane Sandy at the end of October.
Car inventory is steady with a 65-day supply, down slightly from 66 days in November, while truck inventory has decreased to a 72-day supply from 77 days.
Vehicle inventory levels should stabilize even further this month and into early 2013 with automakers’ scheduled holiday production shutdowns in late December and the expected robust sales pace in the month, LMC said.
As 2012 draws to a close, LMC Automotive projects the 2012 North American production forecast to finish with nearly 15.4 million units produced, a 17% increase from 2011. For 2013, the North American production forecast is expected to reach 15.8 million units, a modest 3% rise from 2012, with further upside potential contingent on the pace of demand in the first half of 2013.