The Ford Mondeo is a strong seller in China, and the country is expected to help push global auto sales past the 100-million mark.
Since 2009, the production of new cars and trucks around the world has grown by nearly 25 million units, and one organization is predicting by 2021 it will rise by another 21 million units.
In 2009, there were 61.8 million vehicles produced, which was a 12.4% drop compared with the previous year. However, automakers have steadily seen sales rise to 82.8 million in 2013. That number is expected to hit 85 million this year.
IHS Automotive predicts sales will break the 100-million unit barrier in 2018 before reaching nearly 104 million by 2021.
The new high water mark will be due in large part to China and its appetite for new vehicles. The Chinese market is forecast to grow 10% this year to 23.8 million cars and light trucks, according to a Deutsche Bank report.
Total industrywide vehicle sales in China rose 14 percent to 21.98 million last year, according to the China Association of Automobile Manufacturers. That number is significantly higher than established markets such as North America and Europe.
The top-selling passenger vehicle in China last year was the Ford Focus, with sales of nearly 403,000 units, while Volkswagen Lavida was second and the Buick Excelle finished third. The country is expected to approach 24 million in sales this year, the government agency predicted.
However, IHS also predicts that a long-awaited in rebound in Europe as well as growth in other emerging markets will provide additional fuel for the continued expansion.
The number of segments due to these emerging markets will play a role in that expansion as well.
“Segments are changing globally as the emerging markets tip the balance and mature markets come under pressure to downsize,” said Mark Fulthorpe, director global vehicle production forecasting at IHS Automotive.
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While China will be the big player in the near term, North America is not to be counted out. The industry is attracting foreign investment, such as much-publicized Volkswagen plant in Tennessee. In fact, BMW, Kia, Hyundai, Nissan, Toyota and Honda have all announced expansions or the addition of new products.
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While the firm expects Europe to grow, it won’t begin in earnest this year. Declining vehicle demand in Russia and Turkey will limit European production growth to 1% this year. However, from 2015 to 2017 European output is expected to increase by 4% each year, led by the recovery of domestic demand and sustainable increase in exports, primarily to the U.S. and China.
While it currently consumes 70% of European production, Western European demand will contribute only 50% of production growth expected by 2021. Of this share, more than a half will come from Spain and Italy as they recover from enormous losses experienced during the years of recession, the company said.
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“European car makers will meet divergent demand environments, depending on which part of Europe they are more exposed to,” said Denis Schemoul, manager Europe vehicle production forecasting, IHS Automotive.