Google's driverless car could ultimately cause a decline in car ownership in the U.S.
The growing levels of comfort of driverless cars and the rise of ride-sharing programs could combine to cut private car ownership nearly in half, according to a recent study from the University of Michigan.
If Google’s fleet of self-driving vehicles became part of a growing number of Uber and Lyft drivers, or even supplanted them, the need for a second car is blunted, the researchers said, especially if a “return-to- home” mode is involved allowing the ride share vehicle to act as a form of shared family or household vehicle.
According to Michael Sivak and Brandon Schoettle at the University of Michigan’s Transportation Research Institute, the most recent U.S. National Household Travel Survey (NHTS) data shows a general lack of trip overlap between drivers within a majority of households, opening up the possibility for a significant reduction in average vehicle ownership per household based on vehicle sharing.
The pair notes that the cut in car ownership and the accompanying shift to vehicle sharing within each household, in the most extreme hypothetical scenario, could reduce average ownership rates by 43%.
The number of vehicles per household would drop from 2.1 to 1.2 vehicles, they claim. On the flip side, this shift would result in a 75% increase in individual vehicle usage: from 11,661 to 20,406 annual miles per vehicle.
(Google may be readying challenge to Uber and Lyft. For more, Click Here.)
That increase in mileage could be a godsend for automakers as it represents a significant cut the average lifespan of a vehicle from the current 11.4 years down to 6.5 years, meaning cars would need to be purchased nearly twice as often, offsetting the number of vehicles in each home.
(Click Here for details about how snowstorms impact self-driving vehicles.)
Sivak and Schoettle acknowledge that “given the number of current unknowns regarding sufficient gaps between trips, future self-driving-vehicle implementation, self-driving-vehicle acceptance, and possible vehicle-sharing strategies within households, these results serve only as an upper-bound approximation of the potential for household sharing of completely self-driving vehicles.”
(To see more about the new electronic stability control on the 2016 Ford Focus, Click Here.)
However, automakers such as General Motors, Audi, Ford, Nissan and Mercedes-Benz are all working furiously on some form of self-driving vehicle. Nissan and Tesla have said they’ll have commercially viable autonomous vehicles on the road by 2020.
This assumes that people only view driving as a means to get one from one place to another and not as an enjoyable activity in and of itself. It also assumes that people do not own vehicles for specific purposes for which a Google car or a Lyft ride will not substitute (such as a contractor with a pickup, or a real estate agent who drives clients around).
Perhaps a better title for this article would be: “People who drive Camrys, Corollas, Accords, Altimas and other cars that indicate a complete lack of interest in cars may be buying fewer of them in the future, because they will be able to get from place to place in an equally uninspiring but more cost effective fashion.” That might be a little wordy, though.
Paul:
Yes…your headline suggestion would be a bit longer than we normally post. However, I know plenty of people who would gladly give up a second car under the “driverless” car scenario…as long as as the costs were markedly less than vehicle ownership. I don’t see a big shift if it’s $50 or $100 cheaper on a monthly basis.
Michael:
I only see people giving up the second car if the second car is not really used very much. The IRS lets you write off 56 cents a mile as the cost of ownership. This number goes up every year. Presumably, the providers of driverless cars would have similar costs, plus want to make a profit. Assume 60 cents a mile for the driverless car option. Assume 10,000 miles per year (which is below average mileage). That costs $6,000 a year, or $500 a month. Many people have car payments less than that, so it’s hard to see how the economics work out. Add to that the other issues brought up by other commenters (it’s not my car, so I can’t leave my stuff in it, eat in it, etc…), and it is hard to see too many people doing this (except for Camry, et al., owners, who are about as close to mindless transportation as you can get already).
LOL, Paul
As for me, I can’t imagine not owning a car (but I’m a boomer). Our vehicles are full of various personal items, which of course you’d not have in shared cars.
I’ve seen the statistic that we only use our cars 4% of the time. The problem is that a lot of people need a car the same 4% of the time! What happens on Saturday morning when people run errands? I really doubt that activities could shift to 3 am when most cars aren’t in use
The conclusions reached as usual are incorrect for the most part. While there certainly would be some folks willing to give up their vehicle I doubt the percentage is even remotely close to 15% or more. What is more likely is that people currently using public transportation might consider buying an autonomous vehicle if they don’t have to actually drive it. Thus the car count could increase instead of decreasing.
That of course brings up another question: Will passengers in autonomous vehicles be required to have a current driver’s license?
Part of the appeal, IMO, and shift in consideration is thinking of this model like a personal commuter train car (shared with the public, not same as chauffeur model). This would mean that users couldn’t personalize, smoke, or store leave items in exchange for not having to pay for gas/insurance, being able to read/work/text safely, and completely eliminate road rage. It’s strange how the inconsiderate actions of clueless drivers don’t phase me when I am a passenger, but drive me crazy when I’m behind the wheel.
Finally, the points about fewer cars is sooo important. The entire distribution model could change such that OEM’s “print” cars straight to the road potentially owning their own fleets. Rental companies and black car services probably hate the concept. This new model could be to Detroit’s advantage if we can be forward thinking, embrace creative destruction, and own the future of mobility!
Regarding joy riding – I envision hobby tracks becoming more prevalent, and an increase in motorcycle sales (hard to imagine autonomous bikes…segway + Harley baby??)
Great article Mike – thanks for juicing my imagination 🙂