A half-decade after plunging to its lowest levels in a half-century, the U.S. new car market is in the midst of a major boom. Repeatedly countering skeptics, Americans keep buying more and more new cars, trucks and crossovers, and a new Bank of America study suggests we could see an all-time sales high of 20 million by 2018.
Car manufacturers already are taking in record revenues. All told, U.S. buyers spent $52 billion for their new vehicles in May, as the price of the typical vehicle surged to $32,452, up 4% from May 2014, according to TrueCar.com. At a time when the American middle class is suffering from income stagnation, that may come as a surprise. Buyers are finding workarounds, among other things, stretching their car loans out to record levels. Others, however, are abandoning the new car market in favor of “nearly new” certified used car programs.
That’s leading some skeptics to wonder whether the sales boom can continue at a time when many automakers are raising prices at well above the rate of inflation, stretching already strained middle-class budgets. With traditional low-cost brands like Hyundai and Kia moving up-market, could that create an opening for a new generation of entry-priced offerings from China’s ambitious automakers?
May’s sales numbers, if averaged out over the course of a full year, would come in at around 17.7 million, up roughly a million from 2014’s total. And, in his annual “Car Wars” study, John Murphy, the senior auto analyst at Bank of America Merrill Lynch predicted sales could reach 20 million by 2018.
“If anything, we might be a little on the low side,” Murphy added during an appearance at the Detroit Automotive Press Association.
One major reason for booming sales is so-called pent-up demand. During the Great Recession, car sales slipped below 10 million, a good 40% below the normal trend. In turn, the age of the average vehicle reached record levels, and has continued to rise to more than 11 years. According to Murphy, motorists simply have to replace some of them as they fail by the side of the road.
With demand strong, traditional market forces are at work, and automakers have been pushing up prices. But it’s not just industry greed at work. Shoppers are loading up with more features than ever, from leather seats to 750-watt, 20-speaker audio systems.
Another trend is the shift from small, more affordable cars to costlier SUVs and pickups. Buyers also are migrating, in large numbers, from mainstream brands to luxury marques. And those high-line makers seem less reluctant to raise prices. According to TrueCar, the average transaction price of a BMW rose 6.5% in May, year-over-year, compared to just 2.3% for the typical Toyota.
The steady climb in new car prices might come as a surprise to those worried about relatively stagnant middle-class earnings and the rising wealth gap. In reality, most new car buyers today register on the upper end of the middle-class spectrum. Even for relatively “affordable” models, industry research often shows household income levels approaching six figures.
(Auto sales boom has legs, analyst claims. For more, Click Here.)
Take the new 2016 Mitsubishi Outlander, the lowest-priced midsize utility vehicle on the market right now. The typical buyer of a base, $22,995 model is expected to have a household income of $79,400. For the $31,000, 6-cylinder Outlander GT, that will jump to $94,000.
One way to cope with high costs is by stretching out financing . Gone are the days of three and even four-year loans. Borrowers extended their terms during the previous quarter to 67 months on average, longer than ever for new cars, according to Experian Automotive.
“While longer term loans are growing, they do not necessarily represent an ominous sign for the market,” said Melinda Zabritski, Experian’s senior director of automotive finance.
(Click Here for details about May’s strong sales results.)
Another trend is the emergence of the so-called Certified Pre-Owned, or CPO, vehicle. These typically are off-lease products with low mileage that have gone through extensive inspections and, if necessary, repairs. Paired with like-new loans, they’ve become the option of choice for many long-time new-car buyers.
But analysts like David Sullivan, of AutoPacific, Inc., suggest there could be another gap opening up. In decades past, as car prices rose, Americans turned by the millions to then-cheap Japanese and Korean products. Gone are the fire sale-priced Toyotas. Hyundai and Kia now offer luxury models and fewer low-end bargains.
(To see more about how spending on new vehicles is at an all-time high, Click Here.)
Could China come next? Makers from the Mainland have been promising to cross the Pacific for close to a decade. They’ve delayed their U.S. entries, in part, due to technical and safety concerns – and the fact that the Chinese market has sucked up everything they can build. But with that market cooling, there’s growing talk about finally targeting America’s buyers.
We’ll see the first Chinese-made vehicle go on sale in the U.S. in the coming weeks, a limited-volume, stretch version of the Volvo S60. But Sullivan and others are betting that more affordable offerings could reach her soon – and help keep the U.S. new car boom from going bust.
(A version of this story first appeared on NBCNews.com.)
Apparently new auto buyers have plenty of money or good credit to pay the price of new vehicles. I don’t know many people who’s income has kept pace with new auto price increases. Evidently 80 month auto loans are now the new conventional auto loan for a commoner? The car’s actual cost with an 80 month loan will be staggering for most people. This would be a good means to stay poor forever.
Leasing is hot for a reason; it brings down the price of admission for someone who wants a new car. IIRC, the majority of Infiniti “sales” are actually leases.
But off lease cars now entering the market will drive down residuals, making leasing more expensive. I think that is going to cool things off in a year or two.
I sell cars and sit in the show room 60 hours a week dealing with every Tom, DIck and Mary that come in. 20% of the people are normal, the other 80% drag in some sort of convoluted agenda.
This article is FILLED with false info and is stitched together, cut and pasted and put out here as fact. It is a mis-representation of the market and the processes. Moreover, the rates are at or near 0.00% for many loans. In my mind, if you can get a loan at 3.9%, you have done very well….compared to where they have been (and are for people with bad or no credit) in the past years.
Our auto-park has one main rule, it is the Golden Rule. Break it in any way shape or form and you are asked to leave. We treat customers with respect at all times. Where the process fails is when customers don’t bring the same attitude to the process.
Want to buy a car? Stop all the dealer shopping, online hopping…..etc…..research the dealers, period. Then research the sales people (http://www.dealerrater.com) and FIND one you like. The once you have found a great dealer and a great sales person, walk in the door ready to “buy a car today”….and mean it! You will get a great deal, the process will be smooth and, after the sales process and delivery process is done, you will have a great dealer behind you.
Trust me, I know. We are the highest ranked dealership around and I am the #1 Ranked National Sales Person for our brand in the country. The whole car buying process has changed incredibly in the past 24 months. We stay ahead of the process by offering great pricing, great service and purchase experience.
Finally, I take exception to a lot of the data in this article and find it inaccurate, mis-leading and sophomoric. I despise people who try and make those in the autos sales process out to be liars, cheats and ingrates. Usually, if there is a bad experience when someone buys a car, it comes from an over-demanding, self-important customer and not the dealership.
Get with it, Eisenstein!